Weak monsoon forecast and El Nino could lift India food inflation fast

Buffer stocks may not stop uneven rainfall effects

India’s inflation outlook is under pressure as forecasters expect a below-average monsoon and rising El Niño risk. Cooler and uneven rains could curb agricultural output, tightening supplies and pushing food prices higher even if buffer stocks offer partial cover. The next rainfall cycle is poised to be a key swing factor for whether inflation stays contained or accelerates in the coming months.