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Sugar Week sparks hopes and fears as El Niño and Petrobras policy swing Brazil fuel demand

Sugar Week sparks hopes and fears as El Niño and Petrobras policy swing Brazil fuel demand

New York Sugar Week ended amid near five-year lows, but traders are watching two volatile levers: Brazilian fuel economics and El Niño’s potential hit to India’s cane. With Brazil’s large crops already pressuring raw sugar, mills may shift cane toward gasoline-related ethanol, depending on the “sugar mix.” Estimates range as low as 45% versus last year’s 50.4%. Petrobras has held gasoline prices steady despite broader gains, affecting ethanol demand. Separately, El Niño-driven dryness could influence India output, at a time when exports are already curtailed and restrictions are debated for 2026-27.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 16 May 2026
Monsoon hits Kerala May 26 six days early while IMD warns 2026 rain will be below normal

Monsoon hits Kerala May 26 six days early while IMD warns 2026 rain will be below normal

India’s southwest monsoon is expected to begin over Kerala on May 26, six days earlier than the normal June 1 date, according to IMD. The early onset matters because it kickstarts sowing of kharif crops such as rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane. But the season comes with a warning: IMD forecasts 2026 rainfall at 92% of the long-period average, citing El Nino concerns. Meanwhile, heatwave to severe heatwave conditions persist over northwest and central India.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 15 May 2026

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Super El Nino Could Hit 2026 With 70% Odds—Experts Warn It May Cut India Monsoon Near 92%

Super El Nino Could Hit 2026 With 70% Odds—Experts Warn It May Cut India Monsoon Near 92%

Forecasters are warning that a powerful Super El Niño could form in 2026, following the decline of current La Niña conditions. Reports cite around a 70% chance of El Niño developing by June, with major climate agencies linking El Niño to higher global temperatures and major weather disruption. If a super event emerges, experts fear India’s monsoon could weaken, with rainfall potentially falling to about 92% of the long-period average, straining agriculture worldwide and fueling food inflation.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 15 May 2026
Southwest monsoon likely hits Kerala on May 26 five days early IMD warns of below normal rains

Southwest monsoon likely hits Kerala on May 26 five days early IMD warns of below normal rains

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the Southwest Monsoon to set in over Kerala on May 26, about five days ahead of its usual June 1 onset. IMD says the timing could shift up to four days earlier or later. Favourable conditions are already building over the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where the monsoon typically begins around May 20. IMD also projects seasonal rainfall of 80 cm versus a long-term average of 87 cm, citing El Nino.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 15 May 2026
India bans sugar exports until September 30 releasing 4-5 lakh tonnes for domestic demand

India bans sugar exports until September 30 releasing 4-5 lakh tonnes for domestic demand

India has prohibited sugar exports until September 30, a move expected to free 4-5 lakh tonnes for domestic consumption. The government cites El Nino risks that could affect 2026-27 production, aiming to strengthen next year’s buffer stock. But the abrupt export stoppage may squeeze sugar mill liquidity, especially as mills need cash for high cane payment schedules in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Overseas demand had surged after longer Brazil shipping times, and recent export volumes had jumped sharply.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 14 May 2026
Bank of Baroda warns fuel and weather could lift India inflation in FY27 fast

Bank of Baroda warns fuel and weather could lift India inflation in FY27 fast

Bank of Baroda says India’s inflation outlook for FY27 faces rising risks despite currently low CPI and stable core inflation. Higher fuel prices can ripple into food costs, while heatwaves and global patterns like El Nino could further strain crop output. The bank urges close monitoring of food inflation as energy and weather shocks build.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 13 May 2026

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Record wildfires surge across Africa and Asia as El Nino and heat extremes loom

Record wildfires surge across Africa and Asia as El Nino and heat extremes loom

Record wildfires are spreading across Africa and Asia, with scientists warning that conditions could worsen as summer peaks and El Nino strengthens. The combination of climate change and El Nino may trigger unprecedented weather extremes. In Africa alone, land burned is already up 23% compared with the previous record, raising alarms over heat, drought, and fire risk.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 12 May 2026
Mumbai Faces 10% Water Cut From May 15 as Seven Lakes Hit Danger Levels

Mumbai Faces 10% Water Cut From May 15 as Seven Lakes Hit Danger Levels

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has ordered a 10% cut in Mumbai’s water supply starting May 15. The decision follows a sharp fall in the city’s seven lakes to 23.5%, driven by rising temperatures and growing worries that the monsoon could arrive late and below average. The BMC linked the outlook to El Nino conditions.

Summarised by Beize from a story on Republic on 11 May 2026
Asia heat waves and El Nino could spark another inflation surge for oil hit economies

Asia heat waves and El Nino could spark another inflation surge for oil hit economies

Asia is bracing for a fresh inflation wave as heat and dry weather intensify food price pressures under El Nino. The threat lands on top of existing oil price shocks, squeezing already-stressed economies. Countries including the Philippines and Pakistan are seeing high inflation now, and further price hikes are expected in the coming quarters as El Nino strengthens later this year.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 8 May 2026
India’s heat exposes a fragile power grid as energy crunch deepens

India’s heat exposes a fragile power grid as energy crunch deepens

India faces an intense summer as persistent heat waves push power grids to the brink. With demand rising and energy shortages widening, warmer temperatures are degrading night-time electricity availability—triggering blackouts and disruptions. Authorities also warn that El Nino could intensify stress during the monsoon, raising outage risks even beyond summer.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 2 May 2026

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Iran war and El Nino threaten world rice supply pushing prices toward strain

Iran war and El Nino threaten world rice supply pushing prices toward strain

The Iran war is rippling through global rice markets, unsettling both major exporters and key importers. Farmers and traders in Thailand and Vietnam report disruption alongside growing weather pressures from El Nino, while countries dependent on imports such as the Philippines and Indonesia brace for tighter supplies. The result could be renewed price pressure as shipments and demand realign.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 2 May 2026
IMD warns of above normal May rainfall but hotter nights and pockets of heatwaves

IMD warns of above normal May rainfall but hotter nights and pockets of heatwaves

India is set for a mixed May, with IMD projecting above-normal rainfall nationwide. While maximum temperatures in many regions may stay normal to below normal, southern peninsular areas could see hotter days. Warmer nights are expected across the country, and IMD has flagged possible heatwave conditions in specific pockets, even as rains increase.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 1 May 2026
Weak monsoon forecast and El Nino could lift India food inflation fast

Weak monsoon forecast and El Nino could lift India food inflation fast

India’s inflation outlook is under pressure as forecasters expect a below-average monsoon and rising El Niño risk. Cooler and uneven rains could curb agricultural output, tightening supplies and pushing food prices higher even if buffer stocks offer partial cover. The next rainfall cycle is poised to be a key swing factor for whether inflation stays contained or accelerates in the coming months.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 1 May 2026
Heatwaves Are India’s New Normal as 46C Swelter Spreads and Climate Drivers Shift

Heatwaves Are India’s New Normal as 46C Swelter Spreads and Climate Drivers Shift

India is grappling with worsening heatwaves, with temperatures hitting around 46°C in many areas. El Nino may intensify conditions and disturb monsoon patterns, but experts say it is not the only explanation. Persistent high pressure over the region and a decline in western disturbances are cited as key reasons heat stays longer and spikes harder across the country.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 28 Apr 2026

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Super El Nino fears rise as scientists warn heat could last for months and years

Super El Nino fears rise as scientists warn heat could last for months and years

Scientists are increasingly warning that the current heat may be more than a typical hot season. They’re watching for a possible Super El Niño, a stronger version of the El Niño Southern Oscillation that can shift weather patterns for months—and sometimes even years—changing what “normal” looks like across regions.

Summarised by Beize from a story on Republic on 27 Apr 2026
Heatwave bets spark Adani Power and Tata Power rallies to 52 week highs and near 48% gains

Heatwave bets spark Adani Power and Tata Power rallies to 52 week highs and near 48% gains

Adani Power and Tata Power shares jumped, hitting fresh 52-week highs as India’s heatwave pushes expectations of stronger electricity demand. With regions warning of extreme temperatures up to 45°C, analysts say a likely strong El Niño could further lift cooling-related consumption. The stocks have soared as much as 48% in a month, reflecting bullish demand bets.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 27 Apr 2026
WMO warns El Nino likely by May July 2026 with hotter land and shifting rains

WMO warns El Nino likely by May July 2026 with hotter land and shifting rains

The World Meteorological Organisation says the Equatorial Pacific is shifting as sea surface temperatures rise, making a return of El Niño likely by May to July 2026. Its Global Seasonal Climate Update also predicts nearly global dominance of above normal land surface temperatures, alongside uneven rainfall patterns across regions—raising concerns for heat stress and water planning worldwide.

Summarised by Beize from a story on Republic on 25 Apr 2026
Strong El Nino in 2026 threatens monsoons crops and prices from Asia to China

Strong El Nino in 2026 threatens monsoons crops and prices from Asia to China

Forecasters warn a strong El Nino is likely in the second half of 2026, bringing hotter, drier conditions across Asia. The outlook raises risks for crops and food supplies, as farmers may struggle with fertilizer shortages and high fuel costs. India is bracing for below-average monsoon rains, Southeast Asia could see weaker palm oil and rice output, and China faces a higher flood risk.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026

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RBI warns West Asia conflict could swing inflation and growth — but holds fire for now

RBI warns West Asia conflict could swing inflation and growth — but holds fire for now

RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee said a longer West Asia conflict could meaningfully affect India’s growth and inflation, even as the economy stays resilient. Instead of changing policy, it chose a wait-and-watch approach, citing heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a possible El Nino-driven inflation risk.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026
El Nino set to reshape 2026 27 weather bringing drier Asia and wetter Americas

El Nino set to reshape 2026 27 weather bringing drier Asia and wetter Americas

Forecasters warn a strong El Nino may form in late 2026, shifting weather patterns worldwide. Much of Asia could see hotter, drier conditions, with India’s monsoon potentially running below average and Australia’s key eastern farming areas facing reduced rainfall. Meanwhile, parts of North and South America may get wetter weather, even as the climate event remains natural.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026
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