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Super El Nino Could Hit 2026 With 70% Odds—Experts Warn It May Cut India Monsoon Near 92%
Economy
Published on 15 May 2026
A 22% chance of truly super intensity in 2026
Forecasters are warning that a powerful Super El Niño could form in 2026, following the decline of current La Niña conditions. Reports cite around a 70% chance of El Niño developing by June, with major climate agencies linking El Niño to higher global temperatures and major weather disruption. If a super event emerges, experts fear India’s monsoon could weaken, with rainfall potentially falling to about 92% of the long-period average, straining agriculture worldwide and fueling food inflation.
- About a 70% chance of El Niño conditions by June
- WMO links El Niño to higher temperatures and weather pattern shifts
- Super El Niño means at least 2°C warmer Niño 3.4 waters
- India’s monsoon rainfall could fall to around 92% of average
- ECMWF projects 98% odds of at least moderate by August 2026
- A super event is estimated at a 22% chance by August 2026
Read the full story at The Economic Times
This summarization was done by Beige for a story published on 
The Economic Times