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Super El Nino Could Hit 2026 With 70% Odds—Experts Warn It May Cut India Monsoon Near 92%

Super El Nino Could Hit 2026 With 70% Odds—Experts Warn It May Cut India Monsoon Near 92%

Forecasters are warning that a powerful Super El Niño could form in 2026, following the decline of current La Niña conditions. Reports cite around a 70% chance of El Niño developing by June, with major climate agencies linking El Niño to higher global temperatures and major weather disruption. If a super event emerges, experts fear India’s monsoon could weaken, with rainfall potentially falling to about 92% of the long-period average, straining agriculture worldwide and fueling food inflation.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 15 May 2026
Bank of Baroda warns fuel and weather could lift India inflation in FY27 fast

Bank of Baroda warns fuel and weather could lift India inflation in FY27 fast

Bank of Baroda says India’s inflation outlook for FY27 faces rising risks despite currently low CPI and stable core inflation. Higher fuel prices can ripple into food costs, while heatwaves and global patterns like El Nino could further strain crop output. The bank urges close monitoring of food inflation as energy and weather shocks build.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 13 May 2026

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Monsoon likely hits Andaman around May 20 but below average rains threaten kharif crops

Monsoon likely hits Andaman around May 20 but below average rains threaten kharif crops

The IMD expects the Southwest Monsoon to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 20. With forecasts pointing to below average rainfall, farmers face uncertainty as the kharif sowing window starts in June. Timing and uneven rain distribution could delay planting of pulses and oilseeds, with potential knock-on effects for food inflation.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 8 May 2026
India urged to map economic vulnerabilities in energy and food amid West Asia risks

India urged to map economic vulnerabilities in energy and food amid West Asia risks

Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister chairman S Mahendra Dev says India must proactively map and monitor economic vulnerabilities across energy, food and other key areas. In remarks to PTI, he cited the ongoing West Asia conflict as a real-world stress test, calling for a forward-looking risk management approach rather than reacting after disruptions hit supply and prices.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 4 May 2026
Gulf urea output falls as fertilizer ships get stuck raising food inflation fears

Gulf urea output falls as fertilizer ships get stuck raising food inflation fears

Urea output in the Gulf has dropped, while fertilizer ships face delays in finding safe routes, tightening supply chains. Officials and traders are trying to secure alternative shipping paths for essential goods. The combined impact could worsen food inflation if fertilizer shortages reduce crop inputs and slow seasonal planting.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 29 Apr 2026
West Asia crisis could spark real shortages in India oil and fertiliser warns Gita Gopinath

West Asia crisis could spark real shortages in India oil and fertiliser warns Gita Gopinath

Gita Gopinath says India is among the worst hit by the West Asia conflict, with disruption spreading beyond prices to supply chains for oil and gas. She warns fertiliser shortages could translate into lower farm output, lifting food inflation later. Growth is still projected around 6.5%, helped by tariff relief, while solar energy could cushion future shocks.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026

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Government sells tomatoes at Rs 65 per kg in Delhi as crop damage tightens supply

Government sells tomatoes at Rs 65 per kg in Delhi as crop damage tightens supply

To curb soaring tomato prices, the government is selling tomatoes at Rs 65 per kg via mobile vans in Delhi and nearby cities. The spike is linked to unseasonal rains in Maharashtra that damaged crops, while delayed sowing and rising pest pressures have reduced supply. A price stabilization fund is reportedly helping manage costs.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026
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