Rupee’s next move depends on two shocks as oil spikes and funds flee risk

Markets are pricing a risk exit faster than oil

Trump’s ultimatum and Iran’s retaliation threats have rattled global markets, pushing crude oil higher while investors rush out of risk. With tensions escalating and economies under strain, currencies like the rupee face pressure from both the oil channel and foreign portfolio flows. The key question now is which force dominates next—and how deep the decline could go.