Oil at 100 and gold imports surge Could push India trade deficit and CAD toward 2 percent GDP

Published on 16 May 2026

Gold imports jumped 82 percent year on year to 5.6 billion

ICICI Bank Global Markets warns India’s external balance may worsen as a West Asia conflict keeps oil prices elevated, with crude averaging near USD 100 per barrel. Even with resilient services exports, it expects the current account deficit to land around 1.5–2% of GDP, assuming non-essential imports are curbed and capital inflows improve as global risk sentiment stabilizes. April data showed goods exports up 14% but imports rose faster, led by an 82% jump in gold.

CAD expected at 1.5–2% of GDP if non-essential imports are contained
Oil prices projected to average about USD 100 per barrel amid West Asia risks
April goods exports rose 14% YoY to USD 43.6 billion, led by oil exports
Gold imports jumped 82% YoY to USD 5.6 billion, widening the trade gap
Goods trade deficit widened to USD 28.4 billion in April from USD 20.7 billion
FPI outflows of about USD 10 billion in FY27 so far could pressure capital flows

#capital flows #trade deficit #current account deficit #oil prices #gold imports

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Oil at 100 and gold imports surge Could push India trade deficit and CAD toward 2 percent GDP

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