An experiment shows how easy it is to create the illusion of “market genius” by only counting the winners: after each round, the group that was wrong simply disappears, so the remaining universe naturally boasts perfect results. The same mental trap distorts equity investing, where investors fixate on the rare 10x to 100x winners while ignoring the massive failures that made those wins possible. Using Indian stock data since 2000, odds of 5x gains depend heavily on when you enter.
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