Indian refiners are preparing for a potential reduction in Russian oil imports as a US waiver set to expire this weekend nears. Geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran war have disrupted Persian Gulf supplies, pushing India toward more Russian crude in recent weeks—making the waiver’s end a high-stakes moment for sourcing and costs.
Starting April 2025, the US rolled out multiple tariffs on Indian goods, with rates shifting between reciprocal measures and duties tied to India’s Russian oil purchases. Some actions were suspended or revised over time. The biggest twist came when US courts struck down parts of the reciprocal tariff system, changing the pressure on exporters and trade negotiations.
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India’s Russian crude imports cooled in April, falling 20% month-on-month to 1.57 million barrels per day after a March jump. The surge had been supported by floating cargoes amid the Iran conflict and a temporary US sanctions waiver, but that tailwind faded, pulling volumes back in April.
European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic says he understands U.S. relief on Russian oil sanctions is temporary, after talks with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The discussion also turned to knock-on shocks from closures near the Strait of Hormuz, and fertilizer supply chain disruptions hitting Europe and Africa. Bessent urged G20 countries to improve fertilizer access.
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