The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the Southwest Monsoon to set in over Kerala on May 26, about five days ahead of its usual June 1 onset. IMD says the timing could shift up to four days earlier or later. Favourable conditions are already building over the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where the monsoon typically begins around May 20. IMD also projects seasonal rainfall of 80 cm versus a long-term average of 87 cm, citing El Nino.
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