New York Sugar Week ended amid near five-year lows, but traders are watching two volatile levers: Brazilian fuel economics and El Niño’s potential hit to India’s cane. With Brazil’s large crops already pressuring raw sugar, mills may shift cane toward gasoline-related ethanol, depending on the “sugar mix.” Estimates range as low as 45% versus last year’s 50.4%. Petrobras has held gasoline prices steady despite broader gains, affecting ethanol demand. Separately, El Niño-driven dryness could influence India output, at a time when exports are already curtailed and restrictions are debated for 2026-27.
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