Moody’s Ratings has cut India’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 6%, lowering it by 0.8 percentage points. The agency cites weak private consumption, slower capital formation and industrial activity, plus higher energy costs. Moody’s also pegged 2027 growth at 6%, down from earlier estimates, warning that global and domestic pressures continue to weigh on momentum.
The ADB chief economist warns crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated due to the Middle East crisis. With India heavily dependent on imported oil, higher energy costs are expected to drag FY27 GDP growth while inflation rises. Additional pressure could come from weather disruptions and soaring fertilizer costs, which may push up food prices.
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India’s growth outlook is hovering around 7% this fiscal, but CII president Rajiv Memani says the figure depends heavily on a quick end to the Iran war. If fighting drags on, growth could slow to 6.5%. Companies are already preparing for shocks, while private investment and confidence are expected to rebound once West Asia stabilizes, supported by steady consumption demand.
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