Global rice production is forecast to fall for the first time in a decade as declines in India, Myanmar, and the US collide with record consumption and trade. That mix is expected to reduce global stockpiles just as costs rise, with higher fertilizer and energy bills and possible monsoon disruptions in India adding further risk to supplies.
Oil prices climbed to $105 as markets watched a high-stakes Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing. The focus: whether diplomacy can help end the Iran war disrupting supply, including fears around the Strait of Hormuz blockade. With supply lagging demand and few tankers reportedly exiting since February, traders are betting on a breakthrough to cool prices.
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Wheat prices are rising sharply this week as weather disruptions threaten supply while fertilizer shortages worsen. Analysts point to constraints linked to the Iran conflict as a key factor tightening fertilizer availability, raising fears of lower yields and a broader global wheat supply squeeze.
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